NFL Week 3 Injury Recap & Fantasy Impact

Week 2 was about injured quarterbacks; Week 3 belongs to star running backs. Season-ending blows to Najee Harris and James Conner headline a slate that also sidelined several others for extended stretches, with a few top receivers joining them. In this NFL Week 3 injury recap, I break down what happened, expected return timelines, and how each injury shifts your fantasy decisions when these players return.

Quarterbacks

Mac Jones

Injury: Left PCL sprain

Analysis: Jones apparently injured his left PCL in camp. As a right-handed pocket passing quarterback, it is not crazy that we did not hear about this. The PCL is a major passive knee stabilizer, but a grade I injury indicates very little stability loss, and it’s more about getting pain under control. For Jones, a right-handed passer, he is not pushing off the left leg for throwing power, so a PCL injury won’t impact his throwing, just running. Jones may or may not miss any time with this, but starter Brock Purdy has a chance to play next week anyway.

Running Backs

Najee Harris

Injury: Left Achilles tear

Analysis: Harris tore his Achilles tendon and will miss the rest of the season as he is slated for surgery. The Achilles is still the most difficult injury to resume a productive NFL career after. To date, JK Dobbins is the only running back to return to a high level of play. Running backs average a 44% decline in fantasy points per game in the first year after an Achilles tear.

The silver lining is that Harris is relatively young still (27), is still in his prime, and will have close to 11 months to rehab before week 1 next season. Odds are stacked against him being productive next year, but he has as good a shot as any running back to overcome the devastating Achilles tear.

James Conner

Injury: Foot Injury

Analysis: We are still awaiting a full report on James Conner’s devastating foot injury, but we know he needs season-ending surgery. A major foot surgery at age 30 will present a great challenge for Conner to regain his burst and power that have cemented him as one of the toughest players to tackle in the NFL over the past eight seasons. There is no guarantee that he returns to prominence, but time will tell.

Tyrone Tracy

Injury: Right shoulder dislocation

Analysis: Tracy dislocated his shoulder on Sunday night as the Chiefs defender hit the posterior portion of his shoulder, causing an anterior dislocation. This most likely caused an anterior labrum injury (aka Bankart lesion). Tracy will attempt to rehab and return to play, which many NFL players have done before. NFL players average missing 3 weeks following a shoulder dislocation and can return to play at a high level; however, the re-dislocation risk is extremely high (55%), and another dislocation would mean more time missed. Surgery is often performed to stabilize dislocations and has a 5-6 month rehab timeline. Many times, NFL players will manage dislocations conservatively during the season and hold surgery until the offseason.

Samaje Perine

Injury: Thumb injury

Analysis: Perine injured his thumb on Sunday but underwent an MRI, which showed no major injury. Many running backs have played well through thumb injuries, though Perine’s catching work would be affected, assuming he wears a brace or heavy tape job.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb

Injury: High ankle sprain

Analysis: Lamb endured a classic high ankle sprain, with the Bears defender falling on the outside of Lamb’s ankle in a hip-drop-esque tackle. In the NFL, WRs average 2.8 weeks missed (some zero, some multiple). Lamb will miss Week 4 and is currently expected to miss 3–4 games, indicating a grade II injury with true laxity and loss of stability present. If he returns too quickly, he risks performance decline and re-injury (10%). However, if Dallas affords Lamb enough time to rehab properly, WRs actually average no fantasy points drop in their first game back from a high-ankle sprain despite about a 16% dip in snap rate (n=41 since 2017).

Lamb is a target monster with a strong rapport with his QB. If Dallas gives him enough time to regain stability, he should return to form and continue producing for the Cowboys and for fantasy managers.

Mike Evans

Injury: Hamstring injury

Analysis: Evans suffered his eighth career hamstring injury. The 32-year-old has now injured a hamstring in five consecutive seasons. As of this writing, MRI results are not yet public, but judging by Evans’ mobility after the injury and his notable frustration, it is likely he misses time.

Receivers average missing 1.8 games and see a 15% dip in fantasy points in game one after injury, a number that returns to its mean in game two post-injury. Re-injury rates are 20-30% which will make fantasy managers nervous the rest of the season.

Terry McLaurin

Injury: Quad injury

Analysis: McLaurin injured his quad in the third quarter. The quad muscles are powerful and critical for sprinting and changing direction. Receivers average missing one game, but see no drop-off in fantasy points when they return.

Quentin Johnston

Injury: Ankle injury

Analysis: Johnston appeared to injure his ankle early in Sunday’s game but continued to play. For now, this is just one to monitor.

Alec Pierce

Injury: Concussion

Analysis: Pierce is in the concussion protocol after his head slammed into the ground on Sunday. Pierce now has three documented concussions, which will increase the risk for future head injuries.

Dyami Brown

Injury: AC joint injury

Analysis: Brown landed directly on his shoulder, a mechanism that leads to AC joint injuries. Receivers average missing just one game but see a 27% dip in fantasy points in the first game after injury.

Tight Ends

Colston Loveland

Injury: Hip injury

Analysis: Loveland injured his hip, but it is not believed to be serious. Any hip injury can impact a player’s ability to sprint and change direction. Tight ends can continue to rely on size and elite hands and typically see no drop-off in fantasy points after a hip injury.

Michael Mayer

Injury: Concussion

Analysis: Mayer will have to pass through the NFL’s concussion protocol before returning to play.

Noah Fant

Injury: Concussion

Analysis: Fant also suffered a concussion and will have to pass through the NFL’s concussion protocol.

Ja’Tavian Sanders

Injury: High ankle sprain

Analysis: Sanders is expected to miss extended time with a high ankle sprain. This time frame tells us he is dealing with at least a grade II injury with tissue laxity and instability present. Similar to CeeDee Lamb above, Sanders needs to rehab properly to regain stability to be able to quickly and powerfully push off his ankle. Re-injury rates are 10%. Tight ends average missing 4.5 games and see a significant hit on fantasy points in the first game after injury.