Age and prior injury are the two biggest risk factors for injury. Mike Evans is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and still has a lot of good football ahead of him, but he will have to wait until his latest hamstring injury heals before he can continue to pad his Canton resume. Evans injured his hamstring on Sunday and will miss some time. What can fantasy managers expect when he returns? Will injuries like this continue to be commonplace for the 11-year veteran? Mike Evans’ hamstring injury and the fantasy football impact are covered below.
Mike Evans Hamstring Injury: Timeline
Evans has a lengthy history of hamstring injuries, and prior hamstring injuries increase the likelihood that scar tissue and fatty infiltrates are present in the muscle, reducing its natural elastic capacity and strength. At age 32, healing is slower than it used to be. Following MRI the Buccaneers announced Evans will miss a few weeks, making it likely he is dealing with a grade II injury.
In the NFL, wide receivers average missing 1.8 games with a hamstring injury but Evans age, history, and the Bucs timeline make it possible he exceeds the average. In Evans’ seven prior hamstring injuries, twice has he missed three games.
Hamstring Injury Fantasy Impact
The hamstring muscles are extremely powerful muscles that are critical for sprinting, especially when sprinting more than 30 yards. Evans has been a deep-ball specialist in his career and relies heavily on his hamstring muscles to get past defenders.
As such, hamstring injuries impact receiver fantasy production more than any other position. In the first game after injury, receivers average a 15% drop in fantasy points and an 11% drop in snap count. Fortunately, these numbers return to their mean in the second game after injury.
Hamstring Injury Recurrence Rates
As a football fan, you really don’t even need to read this paragraph; you already know the answer. The hamstring is the most common muscle to have recurring injuries. Evans alone is a perfect example, having seven prior hamstring injuries. Other examples include Julio Jones, Kadarius Toney, Tee Higgins, and many more. The research tells us hamstring injuries have a 20-30% recurrence rate. Evans’ age and history only increase that number.
Evans can be productive again this season and should be stashed on fantasy managers injured reserves for now.