Playoff football carries on! This week we don’t have too many critical injuries, but nontheless the divisional round injury report is here to help you pick the best DFS lineups and set the winning prop bets!
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield
Injury: Ankle, Ribs
Mayfield, fresh off of dominating my Eagles, continues to play through his rib and ankle injuries. There were no reported setbacks following the Wild Card round beat down, and we practiced in full this week. There is no concern for his Divisional round production.
Expected Return: Divisional round
Fantasy Impact: Though rib injuries can impact torso rotation required for throwing and ankle injuries can impact scrambling, throw power, and accuracy, Mayfield has already shown that he can play well through this injury.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey
Injury: Calf strain
McCaffrey suffered a minor calf injury in week 17 but has been a full participant in practice all week. Calf injuries can impact acceleration and top-flight speed and carry a 14-16% recurrence rate. However, McCaffrey’s injury was minor, and full practices this week tell us he is at 100%.
Expected Return: Divisional round
Fantasy Impact: On average, running backs see no drop-off in fantasy production after calf injuries. He’s an alpha play in DFS.
AJ Dillon
Injury: Stinger, Thumb
Dillon returned to practice this week after missing week 18 and the Wild Card with a stinger and the thumb injury that he’s been dealing with. The thumb is easy to play through; stingers can be tricky.
A stinger is a nerve injury to any of the several nerves in the brachial plexus, a collection of nerves that exit the neck and travel into the arm and hand. Nerve injuries have a wide spectrum of severity, and with Dillon missing two weeks, his injury was more than a mild palsy. With nerve injuries, the signal to the muscles the nerves innervate can be impacted, leading to weakness. Usually, this weakness is temporary but can take a few weeks to resolve fully. Considering that these nerves provide signals to the muscles in the arm and hand, it is possible that Dillon’s ability to hold onto the ball may be impacted.
Expected Return: Divisional round
Fantasy Impact: The concern is Dillon’s ability to hold onto the ball. With a stinger being an injury to the nerves that send signals to the muscles of the arm and hand, it’s possible there is residual weakness that would make fumbling more likely. With his teammate Aaron Jones coming off a hot week, I suspect the Packers use Dillon in a limited role, reducing his fantasy upside.
Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin
Injury: Knee
Godwin has been dealing with a knee injury all season but has not missed a single game. He is cleared to play this week and there’s no reason to suspect this to hinder his production.
Expected Return: Divisional round
Fantasy Impact: Godwin has not shown any reduction in snap rate or production due to his knee injury this year. There’s no reason to expect his knee to hinder him this week.
Christian Watson
Injury: Hamstring
Watson returned to action last week after missing 5 games with a hamstring injury but did not perform well, logging only 41% of snaps. Expect this to improve the week. Earlier this season, when Watson returned from a hamstring injury, he played on 46% of snaps in the first game back. This increased to 84% in the following week. Expect a similar trend this week.
Expected Return: Divisional round
Fantasy Impact: Expect Watson’s snap percentage to increase dramatically this week, allowing him the opportunity to be productive. 6 weeks out from his hamstring injury, he should be close to full speed.
Kadarius Toney
Toney, who is seemingly always injured, has returned to practice after missing the last four games with ankle and hip injuries. Both of these injuries have the potential to impact his fast-twitch nature. Ankle injuries carry a 26% recurrence rate, and hip injuries carry an 8% recurrence rate.
Expected Return: Divisional round
Fantasy Impact: While Toney may play this week, he has been awful this season and is not likely to pay off for DFS.
Skyy Moore
Injury: Knee
Moore returned to practice after suffering a knee injury in week 13. However, he will not be ready to play this week. Knee injuries can impact players’ ability to change direction and top-flight speed. In order to play, pain and swelling must subside, and strength and single-leg function must be sound. Apparently, Moore is not quite there yet.
Expected Return: Conference championship
Fantasy Impact: If Kansas City advances to the championship game, Moore will have had over 6 weeks to rehab and could be close to 100%.
Gabe Davis
Injury: PCL sprain
PCL’s are tough. Technically the rest of the structures in the knee can make up the loss of stability that happens with a PCL sprain, especially when it’s only a grade 1-2 sprain (the case with Davis). However the challenge is the recurring swelling and pain that makes it difficult to maintain full range of motion, strength, and ability to change directions. These injuries frequently act up throughout the season and typically take 4-6 weeks to fully resolve. We have seen how PCL injuries linger most recently with Lamar Jackson last year, and Zeke Elliot the year before.
Davis is out this week, and this will likely linger the rest of the season. If he can get pain and swelling under control he may be able to play but recurrances are likely.
Expected Return: TBD
Fantasy Impact: Davis will not play this week.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews
Injury: Fibula fracture with ligament damage
Andrews went down in week 11 after being victim to the hip drop tackle. We know that Andrews had surgery for a broken fibula and ankle ligaments. We have not been told which ligaments but the mechanism of injury Andrews had often leads to high ankle sprains, in which the tight rope procedure would have been utilized. A deltoid ligament may also have been injured. Either way, this is typically a 12-16 week recovery at a minimum. Andrews, like many other NFL players, is built differently, and sometimes, these elite athletes can push the boundaries of these timelines. Though he won’t play this week, Andrews appears to be way ahead of schedule as he was close to playing this week, only 9 weeks out from injury.
If the Ravens win and Andrews is able to play next week, he will likely not be at 100% but will still be able to help the Ravens.
Expected Return: Conference championship
Fantasy Impact: Andrews will not play this week. If he plays next week, he will not be 100% but will be playing at a high enough level to be a redzone threat and help move the chains.