Thanksgiving week is here! The season is zooming by, and only three weeks remain in the Fantasy regular season! This is the time to make the push for the playoffs. Every roster move has critical implications, and a mistake will derail your season. Understanding that the week 12 injury report below is absolutely critical to help fantasy managers set the best roster. Let’s dive in!
Week 12 Injury Report: Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow
Injury: Wrist ligament tear
Burrow’s stressful season ended last Thursday night as he suffered a tear of an unspecified ligament in his wrist. The exact ligament torn has not been made public, but we know that he will undergo surgery soon and will be out for the season.
Regardless of which ligament is torn, most of the major wrist ligament surgeries carry a 3-6 month return to sport timeline. This timeline puts Burrow out for the remainder of the season but should be ready to go by camp next year.
Expected Return: 2024
Fantasy Impact: At age 26 and with over 9 months to rehab Burrow should be back to 100% by week one next year.
Geno Smith
Injury: Elbow
Geno is on the week 12 injury report after taking a shot to the elbow by Aaron Donald. Geno was seen pumping his fingers and shaking his arm after the injury, which typically indicates the ulnar nerve (funny bone) got whacked. Sometimes, this is just a temporary discomfort that resolves quickly. If we are to trust Pete Carrol, his actual injury is a bruise to the triceps.
This does not profile as a long-term injury, but with Seattle playing Thursday, Geno does not have much time to get the bruising under control. Bruising can be painful and inhibit muscle function. The triceps play a role in extending the elbow, which helps create power on the throw. It’s possible this could hinder Geno’s throw power some, but I suspect that if he plays Thursday, he should be largely over the injury. Carrol has stated that he expects Geno to play.
Expected Return: Week 12-13
Fantasy Impact: This could reasonably impact Geno’s throw power, therefore impacting his deep ball.
Derek Carr
Injury: Concussion
Carr has passed through the NFL’s concussion protocol and will play.
Expected Return: Week 12
Fantasy Impact: We do not expect a decline in fantasy production after a concussion.
Week 12 Injury Report: Running Backs
Aaron Jones
Injury: MCL sprain
Jones will not play on Thanksgiving as he has an MCL injury, the 5th of his career. The MCL supports the inside of the knee, preventing it from caving in and helping with proprioception, or the ability to know where a limb is in space without looking. This makes it critical for running backs, who need to cut on a dime. MCL injuries are notorious for swelling and causing stiffness to the knee joint. Getting swelling under control is crucial, and he must regain range of motion, strength, and single-leg function before he can play.
Expected Return: Weeks 13-15
Running backs average missing 3.1 games due to an MCL injury. Jones personally has missed 1, 2, 1, and 2 games with the prior four MCL injuries he has sustained.
Fantasy Impact: Running backs tend to struggle when returning from an MCL injury. They average missing 3.1 games and see a dip of 14% fantasy production and 21% snap rate when they return, with 35% meeting or exceeding pre-injury fantasy production in the first game back. The Packers are notoriously conservative when bringing injured players back (35% and 36% snap share in the two games after injury this season).
Kenneth Walker
Injury: Oblique
Walker finds himself on the week 12 injury report after he injured his oblique early in Sunday’s game. You can literally see him grabbing at his left side after cutting and voluntarily going to the ground due to the injury. Afterward, he takes himself out of the game.
Obliques are strong muscles, critical in rotating the torso and bracing for impact. This function makes them a vital muscle group for running backs. Pete Carrol is suggesting Walker will miss a few weeks but is not likely to go onto the IR. This translates to expecting to miss 2-3 games but returning in time for the fantasy playoffs.
Expected Return: Weeks 14-16
Fantasy Impact: This season we have seen Jaylen Waddle, Puka Nacua, and Christian McCaffrey deal with oblique injuries, which has not affected their fantasy outputs when they return. While the timing of this injury stinks, he should still be valuable in the fantasy playoffs.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Injury: Back
Rhamondre injured his back in week 10, but no structural damage was found. These types of injuries typically cause local muscle spasms and stiffness that can be painful and limit motion initially, but with treatment, they often respond quickly. After the week 11 bye, Stevenson should be close to 100%. This is similar to Ja’Marr Chase’s deal with a few weeks ago.
Expected Return: Week 12
Fantasy Impact: This should not influence Rhamondre’s fantasy output.
De’Von Achane
Injury: Knee injury
Achane aggravated his knee injury that kept him out weeks 6-9. This time around is not expected to be as severe, and he was limited in practice Wednesday. Achane’s game is built on speed and change of direction, attributes that this injury could slow. Additionally, this is Achane’s 3rd notable injury since entering the league. Prior injury is the number one risk factor for future injury. Achane’s injury history and his small stature are starting to raise questions about whether he can hold up in this league. Talent is no concern, but we will see if he can handle the physicality of the NFL.
Expected Return: Week 12-13
Fantasy Impact: Running backs average a decline of 14% in fantasy production after this injury. Achane’s high upside makes it difficult to sit him, but fantasy players should at least consider other options.
Kyren Williams
Injury: High ankle sprain
Williams is back off the IR and is on track to play this week. Williams has been out since week 6 with a high ankle sprain. High ankle sprains are notorious for re-injury and impacting mechanics that can influence injury up the chain. This is because bad high ankle sprains lead to a loss of stability within the ankle. A bad high ankle sprain will cause some degree of separation between the tibia and fibula bones and injury to the syndesmosis tissue that connects them. This creates a less stable ankle, making it difficult to push off for power. Sometimes, these heal fine, but sometimes, the stability is never regained. With Williams being placed on the IR, we know the injury was bad, but we have no way of knowing if he has regained all the stability until we watch him play. Still, he is the top back in a McVay offense. That alone typically leads to fantasy production.
Expected Return: Week 12.
Fantasy Impact: As daunting as high ankle sprains are, surprisingly, on average, running backs show no dip in fantasy production when they return with 41% meeting or exceeding pre-injury production. In a McVay offense, Williams will be valuable.
AJ Dillon
Injury: Groin injury
Dillon is questionable for Thursday with a groin injury. The groin is a collection of strong muscles on the inside of the hip and pelvis that help stabilize an athlete on one leg. While big and strong, the groin muscles are less involved in high-level athletics than other hip and leg muscles. When athletes cut, they push off the outside leg to go the other direction; this does not ask much of the groin muscles. This is why we see little to no drop-off in production with these injuries.
Expected Return: Week 12
Fantasy Impact: Running backs, on average, see no dip in fantasy production when returning from groin injuries. With Aaron Jones out, if Dillon plays he could be a nice start.
Rachaad White
Injury: Knee
White was a very late add to the injury report on Saturday with an unspecified knee injury. While the specifics of the injury are unclear, it’s never a good sign when a player is added to the injury list this late. He may miss week 12.
Expected Return: TBD
Fantasy Impact: Any knee injuries will impact a back’s ability to change direction. White has not been particularly efficient this year, averaging 3.3 yards per carry, making him volume-dependent this season. Fortunately, the volume has been there. With this injury I would expect they get other backs involved more, rendering White less valuable if he does play.
D’Onta Foreman
Injury: High ankle sprain
Foreman is on the week 12 injury report after exiting Sunday’s game after Aiden Hutchenson landed on him from the outside, a common mechanism for a high ankle sprain. The same analysis about high ankle sprains written above for Kyren Williams can be applied. The Bears play Monday, so fantasy managers will likely be better off starting other options unless they have a pivot in the Bears-Vikings matchup.
Expected Return: Week 12-13
Fantasy Impact: Running backs average no dip in fantasy production after a high ankle sprain. Foreman, however, is not expected to be the lead back anymore, with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson fully in the mix. Foreman should be avoided this week if he plays.
Dameon Pierce
Injury: Ankle sprain
Pierce has missed the last three games with an ankle sprain but has finally returned to full practice, putting him on track to play. Ankle sprains impact cutting, therefore agile backs. Pierce is a one cut bruiser, so this would not profile to impact his game as much as other runners.
Expected Return: Week 12
Fantasy Impact: Running backs average a decline of 12% in fantasy production. Pierce has been a liability in fantasy this season and is best kept on the bench.
Week 12 Injury Report: Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp
Injury: Lateral ankle sprain
Kupp is on the week 12 injury report as he was the victim of his own teammate stepping awkwardly on his foot on Sunday, leading to a lateral (low) ankle sprain. His sprain was significant enough to keep him out the rest of the game, but he is expected to play Sunday. Ankle sprains impact the stability of the ankle and, therefore, the ability to quickly cut and change direction, which is what Kupp does so well.
Expected Return: Week 12
Fantasy Impact: Receivers see a modest decline of 12% in fantasy production in the first game after ankle sprains. For Kupp this is not enough to keep him out of your lineups if he plays.
Justin Jefferson
Injury: Hamstring
Jefferson and the Vikings have been very conservative with Jefferson’s hamstring injury, and his week 12 status is still cloudy. As a PT, I appreciate when a team allows the player proper time to rehab, reducing the likelihood of re-injury. Hamstrings are notorious for re-injury, with a prior injury leading to 5x increased risk for injury. Expect this lengthy absence to allow Jefferson to be very close to 100%, and whenever he does return, we should expect his elite production immediately.
Expected Return: Week 12-14 (week 13 bye)
Fantasy Impact: While WRs do average a dip of 12% in fantasy production after a hamstring, I suspect Jefferson will pick up right where he left off when he returns (whether that’s week 12 or 14). If he returns in week 14, he will have had 8 whole weeks of rehab. That’s plenty of time to get your A-game back.
Tyreek Hill
Injury: Hand
Hill is on the week 12 injury report as he is dealing with an unspecified hand injury but does not appear at risk for missing the inaugural Black Friday game. With this being a hand injury, it has no impact on Hill’s best attribute, his speed. He will still be dominant.
Expected Return: Week 12
Fantasy Impact: This will not impact Hill’s elite speed or athleticism. He will routinely be wide open as usual and is an elite option this week as always.
Tee Higgins
Injury: Hamstring
Higgins continues to miss practice with a hamstring injury. Hamstrings impact receivers more than other positions. This is due to the shear fact that receivers are the offensive position that most frequently can get up to top speed, simply because of the distance they run on a given route. The load on the hamstring increases to its peak at top-flight speed. This is why running backs, who typically do not cover a great distance on any given play, are much less impacted.
Higgins will not play again this week.
Expected Return: Week 13
Fantasy Impact: Consider this holistically. Sure, a 12% dip in fantasy production (average for WRs after a hamstring) is not significant for a star, but Higgins has only two good games all season, and Burrow is done for the year. Higgins may continue to struggle even when he does return.
Odell Beckham
Injury: Shoulder
Beckham injured his shoulder during Thursday night’s injury-filled game and is truly a game-time decision. Receivers do average missing 1.4 games, but generally, shoulders are injury players can play through especially wide receivers. Being an upper-body injury, it would not impact his speed or route running, and as long as he can get his arms above his head without pain, he should play. Check in before game time.
Expected Return: Week 12
Fantasy Impact: Being an upper-body injury, this does not impact speed, route running, or run after catch. This is why we see no drop-off in fantasy production after shoulder injuries for receivers.
Noah Brown
Injury: Knee
Brown has been ruled out for week 12 with a knee injury. The Texans have not given much detail on Brown’s knee, but any knee injury can impact route running and run-after-catch speed that could render a receiver ineffective.
Expected Return: Week 13
Fantasy Impact: Knee injuries can slow down a receiver, leading to an expected dip in fantasy production.
Chris Godwin
Injury: Knee, Elbow
Godwin started on the week 12 injury report with both knee and elbow injuries but is good to go for week 12. The elbow injury does not concern me; the knee could slow him down, but his ability to practice throughout is a positive for his outlook this week.
Expected Return: Week 12
Fantasy Impact: Both injuries are very minor and should not impact Godwin’s fantasy production.
Darius Slayton
Injury: Neck
Slayton is dealing with a neck injury and is doubtful for week 12. Initially, this was reported as an arm injury. Often, neck injuries will radiate into the arm, where symptoms will be experienced. This occurs when it is a nerve injury or a facet injury. It’s unclear at this time what the case is, but we will continue to monitor his progress.
Expected Return: Week 13
Fantasy Impact: When Slayton’s neck is mobile enough and no longer in pain, this would not profile to impact his fantasy production.
Rashod Bateman
Injury: Foot
Bateman was temporarily on the week 12 injury report as he injured the same foot he had Lisfranc surgery on in practice on Wednesday. He was able to practice in full the rest of the week and is good to go for week 12. Had this been a more severe injury, concern levels would be high, as this is the same foot he missed most of last season with, but Bateman appears to have avoided anything major.
Expected Return: Week 12
Fantasy Impact: Bateman has struggled all season. A foot injury can slow him down with both sprinting and changing directions. It’s best to keep him on the bench.
Michael Wilson
Injury: Shoulder
Wilson will miss another week as he tends to a shoulder injury. The nature of his injury is unclear, but obviously, he does not have the full strength and/or range of motion to play. Another week to rehab may get him where he needs to be to play next week.
Expected Return: Week 13
Fantasy Impact: When he is able to play, shoulder injuries do not profile to impact fantasy production.
Week 12 Injury Report: Tight Ends
Mark Andrews
Injury: Fibula fracture with ligament damage
Andrews is on the week 12 injury report; unfortunately, his fantasy season is over, and likely his entire season. We know that Andrews had surgery for a broken fibula and ankle ligaments. We have not been told which ligaments. The mechanism of injury Andrews had often leads to high ankle sprains, in which the tight rope procedure would have been utilized. A deltoid ligament may also have been injured. Either way, this is a 12-16 week recovery at a minimum. Now, Andrews, like all other NFL players, is built differently. Sometimes, these elite athletes can push the boundaries of these timelines. Still, I would be very surprised if he returns for the NFL playoffs.
Andrews will have ample time to be ready for week one next year. This injury is fairly similar to Tony Pollard, who broke his fibula and suffered a high ankle sprain in the Divisional round of 2022. However, Pollard’s fibula did not require surgery, and we do not know if Pollard had the same ligaments repaired.
Expected Return: 2024
Fantasy Impact: Andrews should be able to play at 100% next season.