As we prepare for our drafts coming up, it is crucial to assess injury risk. Below, in the fantasy football wide receiver preview, I provide the injury history of several key wide receivers and discuss how their injury pasts may or may not influence their 2023 season.
Cooper Kupp
Injury History
- August 2017: Groin injury – Missed 2 games (pre-season)
- October 2018: Concussion – Did not miss time
- October 2018: MCL sprain – Missed 2 games
- November 2018: ACL tear – Missed 6 games
- January 2021: Knee bruise – Missed one game
- October 2022: Ankle sprain – Did not miss time
- Novemver 2022: High ankle sprain – Missed 8 games (tight-rope surgery)
- August 2023: Hamstring injury
Analysis
Age: 30
Kupp is now the infamous 30 years old. Prior injury and age are the two most significant risk factors for future injury. Age is no longer doing Kupp favors, but while his injury list is somewhat long, he has only missed 16 regular season games in six seasons, with two of these injuries accounting for most of the missed games. Worth noting that the mechanism of his high ankle sprain injury would have caused injury to any human on this planet and was not due to any internal factors on Kupp’s end.
Kupp has been training fully for months after the tight-rope procedure, and I do not expect much impact from the high ankle sprain into 2023. The tight-rope procedure is highly effective and allows earlier range of motion and weight bearing, reducing the likelihood of developing chronic stiffness or significant muscle loss. Kupp’s recent hamstring injury, however, is slightly concerning, as we know the presence of a hamstring injury in season increases the likelihood of another by five times. Being older does not help.
Kupp enters 2023 as an elite playmaker. Injury risk is higher than same-tier players such as Justin Jefferson or Ja’mar Chase, but it is still very possible he will play an entire season as he has done several times before. The upside with Kupp is near infinite, and fantasy players can expect him to be elite this season, but they should note that he comes with slightly elevated injury risk.
Garrett Wilson
Injury History
- September 2022: Rib bruise – Did not miss time
- July 2023: Ankle sprain
Analysis
Age: 23
The 2022 offensive rookie of the year has a relatively unremarkable injury history. He missed some camp due to a low ankle sprain but returned to practice as of Thursday. Wilson’s injury was never deemed severe, and the Jets have allowed him to rehab properly.
Ankle sprains do carry a high recurrence rate, with research suggesting 26% of athletes will have a second ankle sprain. This should not scare off fantasy players, however, as receivers only average missing 1.2 games, with several missing zero games. Wilson is locked in as Aaron Rodgers number-one receiver. We have seen Rodger pepper his primary receiver for years, and we can expect the same from Wilson this season.
Amari Cooper
Injury History
- August 2013: Foot sprain – Did not miss time
- October 2013: Toe sprain – Missed one game
- December 2015: Pantar fascitis – Did not miss time
- November 2017: Ankle sprain – Missed one game
- November 2017: Concussion – Missed one game
- December 2017: Ankle sprain (re-aggravated) – Missed one game
- August 2019: Foot sprain – Did not miss time
- September 2019: Ankle sprain – Did not miss time
- October 2019: Quad bruise – Did not miss time
- November 2019: Patella sprain – Did not miss time
- January 2021: Ankle fracture – Off-season surgery (conflicting reports on what this injury was)
- September 2021: Rib bruise – Did not miss time
- October 2021: Hamstring injury – Did not miss time
- November 2021: Hamstring injury – Did not miss time
- December 2022: Core muscle injury (sports hernia) – Off-season surgery
Analysis
Age: 29
Amari Cooper has long been one of the elite route runners in the NFL. Cooper had offseason core muscle surgery, but is now fully recovered. This type of injury is incredibly challenging to treat conservatively, and often times surgery is needed. Fourtunatley, the surgery is highly effective.
Outside of the core muscle surgery, sure Cooper has an injury past, but he has not missed much time, indicating previous injuries are minor. I do not see much increased injury risk with Cooper, and love him in the 4th round.
Keenan Allen
Injury History
- October 2012: G2 PCL sprain
- March 2012: G3 ankle sprain
- December 2013: AC joint sprain – Did not miss time
- December 2014: Ankle sprain and Fx collar bone (saw remains of that on hard knocks) – missed final 2 games
- November 2015: Lacerated kidney – missed 8 games
- September 2016: ACL injury – missed 15 games
- August 2019: Ankle sprain in camp – Did not miss time
- October 2019: Hamstring injury – Did not miss time
- September 2022: Hamstring injury – missed 5 games
- October 2022: Hamstring injury (re-aggravated) – missed 2 more games
Analysis
Age: 31
Recency bias has many fantasy players viewing Keenan Allen as highly injury prone. Sure, the now 31-year-old missed seven games last season due to a hamstring injury he re-aggravated right away when returning in week 7. Did you know that before last season, Allen had not missed a game since 2016? That is incredible!
Allen started his career as a regular on the injury report, missing 25 games from 2013-2016. Since, with last season excluded, he has been durable and reliable. Allen is getting older at age 31, which puts him at a higher risk for injury. The history of hamstring injuries from last year, combined with his age, makes it more difficult for true muscle healing, and, likely, the quality of hamstring tissue is not what it once was, putting him at higher risk for injury. Allen, however, has shown no decline in production. We know his reliability, but it is reasonable to be concerned due to his age and recent hamstring troubles. Fantasy players will have to weigh their level of risk-taking with a 31-year-old with recent hamstring troubles.
Mike Williams
Injury History
- September 2015: Cervical vertebra fracture
- May 2017: Lumbar disc herniation – Missed 5 games
- November 2017: Knee bruise – Missed 1 game
- September 2019: Back injury – Missed 1 game
- August 2020: AC joint sprain – Did not miss time
- September 2020: Hamstring injury – Missed one game
- December 2020: Back injury – Did not miss time
- October 2022: Grade 3 high ankle sprain – Missed 2 games, re-aggravated, missed 2 more games
Analysis
Age: 28
Since entering the league in 2017, Mike Williams has only missed 11 games due to injury. Yet, it feels that Williams is constantly on the injury report. His playing style lends him more prone to injury with his acrobatic catches. If we break down Williams’s injury history, we do not see any patterns that jump out, outside of him re-aggravating a high ankle sprain last season.
The only injuries on this list that would be concerning for future injury are the hamstring and the high ankle sprain. However, the hamstring was three years ago and is not likely to influence future injury. The ankle sprain could be a lingering issue. A prior ankle sprain increases the risk for future ankle sprain. Additionally, any lingering loss of range of motion can contribute to future lower-body injuries.
At 28 years old, his age is not necessarily working against him just yet. I do not see Williams at much of an increased injury risk for the 2023 season compared to the average NFL wide receiver.
Marquise Brown
Injury History
- December 2018: Lisfranc Injury – Off-season surgery
- October 2019: Ankle sprain – Missed 2 games
- February 2020: Lisfranc fracture – Offseason surgery to remove screw from foot
- October 2020: Knee sprain – Did not miss time
- December 2020: Knee sprain – Did not miss time
- July 2021: Hamstring injury – Did not miss time
- September 2021: Ankle sprain – Did not miss time
- November 2021: Thigh injury – Missed 1 game
- August 2022: Hamstring injury – Did not miss time
- October 2022: Foot fracture – Missed 5 games
Analysis
Age: 26
Despite many injuries, the 26-year-old has only missed eight games in his NFL career. Last season, Brown was off to a tremendous start, standing at WR6 in half-point PPR before getting injured. Brown never recorded another double-digit week after returning from his injury in week 12. However, his quarterback Kyler Murray’s season-ending influenced this in week 14 and the return of DeAndre Hopkins.
All of Brown’s injuries are to his lower body. Two major foot injuries typically are not encouraging, as these have the potential to change running and cutting mechanics. Brown is still young, at 26, and youth is an advantage when recovering from foot fractures. Often we see individuals never able to regain foot mobility after a fracture. Being young when both foot injuries occurred makes it more likely he can fully regain motion. Typically two hamstring injuries would also be concerning, but Brown did not miss time from either, suggesting lesser severity (though they were both in pre-season, allowing him more time to rehab without missing game time). Despite a decent-size injury list, I do not see Brown’s injury history as a deterrent to drafting him this season.
Michael Thomas
Injury History
- March 2015: Sports hernia surgery – Off-season, did not miss time
- December 2016: Foot sprain – Missed one game
- September 2020: High ankle sprain, deltoid ligament – Missed 6 games
- October 2020: Hamstring injury – Missed 2 game (added on to high ankle/deltoid)
- December 2020: High ankle sprain, deltoid ligament – Missed 3 games in 2020, all of 2021 (surgery)
- August 2022: Hamstring injury – Ready for week 1
- September 2022: 2nd toe dislocation – Missed 14 games (surgery)
Analysis
Age: 30
Okay, a whole lot to break down here. A once elite, consistent fantasy producer has been largely out of commission since his 2019 first-place finish. A significant high ankle sprain with concurrent deltoid ligament injury required surgery that was unfortunately held until June, and ultimately, rehab did not go as planned, forcing him to miss all of 2021.
Finally, he returned in 2022 and was off to a hot start as WR8 through two games. In week three, Thomas dislocated his second toe, requiring season-ending surgery. The second toe must take on a great deal of force when running and must have proper stability from ligaments to prevent the toe from extending beyond its allowed range of motion. The dislocation leads to tearing of the ligaments that restrain the toe from moving upwards too far when pushing off while running and cutting. If this restrain is not in place, the toe will continue to glide upwards, and it’s impossible to create force when pushing off.
Thomas is fully recovered from surgery and looks good so far in practice. It remains to be seen if he has lost a step from this most recent injury. Thomas is now 30, which does not work in his favor for recovery. Thomas has missed 40 of the past 50 potential games with his substantial injury history. This also does not go in his favor. There is no question his injury risk is high, and if fantasy players do not like risk, they should not draft him. I do like Thomas at his ADP of WR 42, however. Even if he has lost a step, he has never been a player to rely on elite speed. He is a technician with route running and has impeccable hands. With Olave as the clear WR one, defenses cannot focus on Thomas. This should allow for the underneath routes that made Thomas so special in years past. The ceiling may be capped, but I believe you can get a nice return on investment with Thomas, understanding that injury risk is very high.
Rashod Bateman
Injury History
- August 2021: Groin injury – Missed 5 games
- November 2021: Groin injury – Did not miss time
- October 2022: Lisfranc injury – Required surgery, missed 10 games
Analysis
Age: 23
In Bateman’s short career, he has missed 15 games due to injury. It’s the present Lisfranc injury, of which he underwent surgery in November, that is threatening his 2023 season. A typical return to sport from a Lisfranc surgery is six months. Bateman is now nine months out from surgery. We know that Bateman had a cortisone injection shortly after having the screws removed from his foot. This is not routine practice and indicates lingering irritation in his foot. Bateman finally returned to practice on August 9th, and the few short videos circulating the internet looked really good.
Foot surgeries can go either way. Often times young players respond just fine and do not experience any lingering issues. Travis Etienne is a prime example. Etienne underwent Lisfranc surgery in 2021 and played all 17 games last season, rushing for over 1,100 yards. Unfortunately, Bateman’s path has not been the same so far. Sometimes major foot surgery leads to permanent loss of range of motion or weakness, which can ultimately lead to recurring injury in both the foot and up into the knee, hip, back, etc.
Bateman look’s quick and powerful in the above video; however, the test will be how his foot holds up with repetition. Inflammatory conditions (which is why he had the shot) tend to present themselves with repetition rather than a few hard reps. At present, Bateman’s 2023 outlook is cloudy, and camp reports over the next few weeks will be critical in evaluating him as a fantasy prospect. Fortunately, this is baked into his ADP of WR 52 and 131 overall (half-point PPR). This ADP means you are not risking high capital on a potentially explosive player. Injury risk is certainly higher than most, but the overall risk of drafting Bateman is low.
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Kadarius Toney
Injury History
- October 2017: Shoulder – missed one game
- November 2017: Shoulder – missed one game
- September 2019: Shoulder – missed one game
- August 2021: Hamstring injury – missed part of camp
- October 2021: Ankle sprain – did not miss time
- October 2021: Ankle sprain – missed one game
- November 2021: Quad strain – missed four games
- December 2021: Abdominal injury – missed three games
- December 2021: https://fantasyinjuryteam.com/shoulder-strain-and-sprain/Shoulder injury – missed two games
- May 2022: Knee cleanup – Offseason
- August 2022: Hamstring injury – Re-aggravated in week three, missed weeks 3-7
- November 2022: Hamstring injury – Re-aggravation again, missed three more games
- Off-season 2023: Knee cleanup
- July 2023: Meniscus tear/cartilage injury – Surgery, currently not practicing
Analysis
Age: 24
I’ll make this one short. Toney is loaded with talent but just simply cannot stay on the field. Prior injury is the most significant predictor for future injury, and Toney’s prior injury list is a whole doctoral dissertation in length. You cannot trust him to stay on the field to help your fantasy team. He is young, so hopefully, by modifying his training program and other modifiable factors, he can make changes to help him stay on the field. For more analysis, see my article on Kadarius Toney.
Jameson Williams
Injury History
- January 2022: ACL tear
Analysis
Age: 22
Williams was an elite prospect out of Alabama, tallying 1,572 yards and 15 TDs in his final season at Alabama. Williams suffered an ACL tear on January 10, 2022. This late-season injury led to his rookie season essentially being a red-shirt year. Detroit did the smart thing and let the first-round pick take his time rehabbing before rushing back to the field. Williams first played in week 13 and never saw more than a 25% snap rate. But yet, we saw glimpses of his elite speed with a 41-yard touchdown pass in week 14 and a 40-yard end-around in week 17.
Returning to pre-injury levels after an ACL tear takes an entire year or more. Let’s consider the major factors influencing the ability to return from ACL injury. Williams has all of them in his favor (age, time since injury, single ligament injury, freak athleticism). Williams is now 1.5 years removed from surgery and will be at 100% when he returns from his six-game suspension. If you are willing to hold the speedster on your roster for six weeks, he is an absolute steal at ADP WR 50.
Darnel Mooney
Injury History
- January 2021: Grade II ankle sprain – Missed one game
- September 2021: Low back injury – Did not miss time
- September 2021: Groin injury – Did not miss time
- November 2022: Fibula fracture and high ankle sprain, surgery
Analysis
Age: 25
Mooney went down with an ankle fracture and likely a high ankle sprain in week 11 last season. Mooney underwent surgery to stabilize the fibula and tight rope procedure for the high ankle sprain. Per typical timelines, he is practicing in full in camp and will be ready to go week one.
With any major surgery, players run the risk of residual stiffness. This is especially prevalent when hardware is put in. We know from Mooney’s statements that he has screws in his foot, so this will be something to look for. Mooney is only 25, though, and youth makes it much easier to regain range of motion. Because of his age, and all reports suggesting his rehab has gone as expected, I anticipate him playing like his pre-injury self right away. Mooney struggled last season before injury at WR 41 through week 11. The addition of DJ Moore should take the attention away from him this season, and another year of growth from quarterback Justin Fields should help Mooney outplay his ADP of WR 60. He doesn’t have elite upside but should give you a nice return on late draft capital.
Odell Beckham Jr.
Injury History
- November 2012: Groin injury – Did not miss time
- August 2014: Hamstring injury – Missed 4 games
- June 2015: Hamstring injury – Did not miss time
- October 2015: Hamstring injury – Did not miss time
- October 2016: Hip strain – Did not miss time
- November 2016: Thumb sprain – Did not miss time
- August 2017: High ankle sprain – Missed three games (2 pre-season)
- October 2017: Ankle fracture – Missed 11 games
- November 2018: Quad injury – Missed 4 games
- October 2019: Sports hernia – Did not miss time, off-season surgery
- October 2020: Toe injury – Did not miss time
- October 2020: Back injury – Did not miss time
- October 2020: ACL tear – Missed 11 games (2 following season)
- October 2021: AC joint sprain – Did not miss time
- November 2021: Hip bruise – Did not miss time
- February 2022: ACL tear – Missed all of 2023 season
Analysis
Age: 30
The spooky stat is that 8/16 of Beckham’s injuries occurred in October. Beckham’s most recent injury is the ACL tear he suffered during the Super Bowl win. Again, the factors that influence return from ACL tear include time from injury (in his favor), age (not in his favor), number of tissues involved (in his favor), and elite athleticism (likely a push at this point in his career).
There is no question that 1.5 years removed from surgery, Beckham is fully healed, rehabbed, and ready to play. The question is, how valuable can he be to your fantasy roster? Beckham has not been elite since 2016 and has not finished WR 15 or better since 2018. In fantasy drafts, though, everything is at cost. Beckham sits at WR 45, 108 overall. This is not high capital, but is there potential for high return? I would argue you are better off taking a risk on either of his teammates, Rashad Bateman at WR 52 or Zay Flowers at WR 49.