Divisional ADP Breakdown – AFC East

Welcome to the first of eight (8!) divisional breakdowns! In this series, I will sift through ADP (Average Draft Position) and discuss 1 player who should be and 1 player who shouldn’t be taken at their current draft price. Note that injuries, suspensions, trades, etc. may affect ADP, so adjustments may need to be made depending on when you’re reading this. I will do my best to address any significant changes that may happen during the month of August. All ADPs are taken from Fantasy Pros half point per reception data.

Buffalo Bills

First stop in this series is the AFC East, home of my favorite team, the Jets. But, we still have a long way to go until we talk about them. The Bills are the trendy Super Bowl pick this year, and for good reason. They are loaded on both sides of the ball and get to play the Jets twice this season. Boom, two wins right there. Let’s take a deeper look at the first two players in this series.

Josh Allen (23rd Overall, QB1)

Look, Josh Allen is a good NFL QB, but he’s an unreal fantasy asset. Two straight seasons as the QB1 in fantasy points (something that hadn’t been done since Daunte Culpepper in the ’03 – ’04 seasons). He can throw the ball a mile. At 6’5″, 237 lbs, he is the biggest running threat on the Bills by far. In the red zone, he’s probably their number 1 option on the ground. However, Sean McDermott has come out this offseason saying they want their signal caller to run less in 2022, which presents a big problem for Allen and his ADP.

Per Fantasy Pros, “For perspective, in 2021, 28.5% of Allen’s fantasy points came from rushing yards and touchdowns. If he were to have his rushing yards and touchdowns cut in half, he would have finished as the QB5 in 2021.” For reference, QB5 this year is Joe Burrow at pick 53. If you draft the Bills QB at the end of the second round, you are missing out on the all-important WR or RB position, and that’s usually not a winning strategy. Allen might be able to three-peat at QB1, but if he doesn’t in 2022, you’re probably not going to be happy.

James Cook (106th Overall, RB41)

At this price, why not? As noted above, Josh Allen has been the best option on the ground for the Bills in important situations. Other than an offseason quote from the head coach, there isn’t much to think this season will be any different. But, what if it is? James, the younger brother of Dalvin, has been the talk of Bills camp this year, mainly for his pass catching ability. Cook didn’t drop a single one of his 78 targets during his college career at Georgia. What better way to get your star QB out of harms way while also mimicking the QB run game than with dump offs and screens?

Not saying Cook is going to smash into the top 20 at the position, but we’ve seen what Devin Singletary and Zack Moss can do. The Bills did too and that’s why they selected Cook as their 3rd RB in 4 drafts, this time in the 2nd round. Take the younger Cook at his ADP, there’s not many reasons not to.

New England Patriots

The Patriots finished 10-7 last year en route to an embarrassing first round exit against the Bills. Mac Jones actually had a decent rookie season from a real-life perspective and Hunter Henry scored a TD every week. But where is the ADP value in this year’s team? Is there any?

Damien Harris (55th Overall, RB25)

Well there’s no value here! It’s a personal preference, but in half point and full PPR scoring, I want a running back who can catch passes. Either that, or they receive a bulk of their team’s carries. None of what I just said describes Damien Harris. Last year, the former Alabama star caught just 18 passes and received about 41% of New England’s rush attempts. The reason he vaulted himself to an RB13 finish last season was his 15 rushing TDs. Only Jonathan Taylor had more.

If you take away 5 of his touchdowns from last season, he plummets all the way down to RB23 in half point scoring. This is right around where he is being drafted, so if you don’t get double digit touchdowns from him in 2022, you’ll be upset. Since he is not involved in the passing game, his only path to beating ADP is another outlier season on the ground.

Devante Parker (137th Overall, WR54)

This is another “Why The Heck Not?!” type of pick, but bear with me. Parker was traded a couple of months ago from the Dolphins to add to the Patriots Island of Misfit Wide Receiver Room (trademark pending). The former first-round pick has surpassed 70 catches, 1,000 yards, and 4 touchdowns just once in his career, in 2019. We can’t assume that a new team will bring that type of season for the ex-Dolphin. But based on his draft cost, it doesn’t have to be.

Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers finished last season as WR30 and WR33, respectively. No offense to them, but Parker is more talented than that pair. It’s not outside the realm of possibilities he can surpass one, if not both of them. At this ADP in the middle of the 11th round, you could do worse.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins had a rough 1 – 7 start to the 2021 season before rattling off 8 wins in 9 games to close out the year. Unfortunately, they came up just short of a playoff bid. But with a new coach and some flashy offseason acquisitions, they are hoping to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

Mike Gesicki (108th Overall, TE11)

Too many years of hype have worn me out. When selecting a tight end this late in the game, I want someone who can break into the top 5 on a given week, and that just isn’t Gesicki. Last season he finished as TE5 or better just three times. He was a tight end 13 or worse on any given week ELEVEN (11!) times. All of this was before Tyreek Hill arrived in town. With Gesicki, it’s all the risk, none of the upside. There are better high upside options this late in the draft. On top of everything, he’s been asked to block more in the new scheme. I am O-U-T on this player.

Chase Edmonds (91st Overall, RB35)

We don’t have to do a deep dive, but if you’ve watched the 49ers over the last several years, you’ve seen the running backs in this system put up numbers. The only issue has been their health. And that is cause for concern for Chase and his high ankle sprain from last season. However, he is most likely the starter for what we can presume will be a good offense. The main concern is the Dolphins offensive line which was abysmal last year. That can only go up from here, right?!

Running the ball is not all the former Cardinal can do though. He is a good pass catcher, which as you know from reading this post thus far, is what I’m looking for in these middle rounds. Edmonds has secured 96 passes over his past two seasons in Arizona. Also, Tua wasn’t necessarily completing a ton of deep balls last season, which is good for pass-catching running backs. Per pro football reference, he ranked t-23rd in completed air yards per completion (that’s yards the ball traveled in the air past the line of scrimmage prior to a completion). All these factors lead me to believe Chase Edmonds will beat his current ADP.

New York Jets

The football team that claims New York in their name but really plays in New Jersey did not have a great 2021. Robert Saleh’s and Zach Wilson’s rookie seasons did not go according to plan. I can’t think of a team with a bigger hype train heading into the season. But has this hype overinflated all of their ADP?

Breece Hall (44th Overall, RB21)

I am hoping to eat my words with my choice of “overhyped” with the Jets, but I didn’t have much to choose from. It pains me to write negatively about a guy on my favorite team who was compared to my current favorite player, Jonathan Taylor, throughout the draft process. The Jets greatly improved their LG spot this offseason with the signing of Laken Tomlinson. However, Mekhi Becton’s injury woes from last season have resurfaced at camp already. The offensive line should be improved from last season, but I question if that is enough to make the rookie RB a top-20 back.

Last year the Jets ran just under 61 plays per game, good for 25th in the NFL. Michael Carter ran for 639 yards in 14 games last season. Hall is a much more traditional back than Carter, but that’s not a promising baseline for a running back you are taking as a starter for your fantasy team. Taking rookie running backs in the middle of the 4th round can be a dicey proposition and one I’m usually not willing to take. Pass on the running back.

Elijah Moore (85th Overall, WR34)

Again, not many options to choose from this Jets offense, but Moore is someone to target in the middle rounds of drafts. I chose to highlight him over rookie Garrett Wilson due to the fact we have seen Moore be an elite option in fantasy football already. It’s not hyperbole to say that he was elite, no matter how short of a stretch it was. I’m talking of course about weeks 9 – 13 last year where the Ole Miss prospect had the following weekly finishes: WR1, WR21, WR3, WR39, WR9. Heck of a stretch.

Now, those first 3 games were without Zach Wilson at QB, I am aware of that. However, you have to believe that Wilson is a better QB than who was starting those games. At least that should be the case as we head into year 2 for the ex BYU Cougar. Furthermore, there have been reports out of camp that Moore has emerged as the clear WR1 of the team. These types of reports have to be taken with a grain of salt, but promising nonetheless. Based on ADP, you’re most likely drafting Moore to be on your bench anyway. So why not give him a shot to see if he pans out in 2022? The possible reward says you should.