Davante Adams, a fantasy monster for years, landed in a new spot this offseason. Adams, who turned 29 in December, landed on the Oakland Raiders, where he will be reunited with his former college teammate Derek Carr. Adams was signed to a massive five year, $141 million contract following his trade from the Packers and will look to continue his dominance over the league. We are all asking the same questions- is Davante Adams worth a first-round pick? Are his insane numbers sustainable now that he no longer has Rodgers to throw him the ball? Uncertainty is uncomfortable in fantasy football. You can’t win your fantasy draft in the first round, but you can lose it. We all want solid locks that will guarantee production. So, is Davante Adams our guy? Let’s dive in.
Over the last two fantasy seasons, Adams has amassed 29 touchdowns, 2,927 yards, and 238 receptions while commanding 318 targets. These gaudy numbers amount to an average of 19.5 points per game in half-point PPR scoring formats. Those numbers are undoubtedly first-round pick worthy. To put it into perspective, Jonathan Taylor, the consensus first-round pick this season, averaged 20.8 PPG last year. Adams showed no signs of aging last season and continues to perform at an extremely high level- obviously high enough to be signed to one of the most expensive contracts in the league. Age is no concern this season, as Davante continues to elevate his game and refine his skills. So, what are the concerns? Is Derek Carr good enough to sustain a top NFL receiver?
The Numbers
Derek Carr is 31 years old. Aaron Rodgers is 38 years old. Derek Carr attempted 626 passes last season, while Rodgers attempted only 531. Carr completed 68.4% of his passes, and Rodgers completed 68.9%. Carr threw for 4,804 yards last season, while Rodgers threw for 4,115. Yes, Rodgers did throw 37 touchdowns to Carr’s 23, but Carr is no slouch at his position. In no way am I saying he is as good as Aaron Rodgers, but Derek Carr is a capable NFL quarterback with a strong arm.
Carr has also shown he is willing to latch on to a top receiver. In 2016 he fed Amari Cooper 132 targets, and in 2021 he targeted Hunter Renfrow 128 times. I do not doubt that Adams, a far superior talent to Cooper and Renfrow, will demand 130+ targets this year, with his ceiling being around 150, which would give him a straightforward path to being a top 5 receiver in fantasy football. He will rekindle a strong connection quickly with his former Fresno State teammate. They have all summer to work on timing and should be ready to produce together right out of the gate.
Concerns?
One concern for prospective Adams drafters is competition for targets. The Raiders boast arguably better overall offensive talent than the Packers with the likes of Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, and Josh Jacobs. Beyond those three though, there is not much left on the depth chart. Players like Kenyan Drake, Demarcus Robinson, Keelan Cole, Mack Hollins, and Tyron Johnson are their next best options offensively. Those five names COMBINED for 99 receptions last season, and none are a threat to the target share of the prolific talent of Davante Adams. So while Renfrow, Waller, and Jacobs are in line to be productive offensive weapons for the Raiders, this will only open the field up more for Adams. It will create more scoring opportunities as Carr finds Renfrow underneath and looks early and often to Adams to break the top off of defenses. The Raider’s offense will fly high all year, and the Carr-Adams connection will be the heart of it.
Take Adams with Confidence
While the situation is unknown, the unknown is not always bad. Cold weather is no longer a concern for Adams owners, as he gets to play in toasty Las Vegas. The Raiders signed him to a huge contract and are motivated to use him plenty. Carr is a capable NFL thrower who already has a great connection with his former teammate Davante Adams. Adams is an elite route runner joining a team with almost 200 vacated targets and will see plenty of opportunities. Talent? Check. Opportunity and volume? Check. Top NFL offense? Check. Touchdowns could regress this season for Adams, but he is due for a massive target share in an offense that will move the ball often. Adams is certainly worth a late first-round or early second-round selection. Take him confidently. While he is on a new team, he is still a top talent who provides a safe floor with a world of upside every week.
My Predictions for 2022 Season:
- Receptions: 118
- Targets: 142
- Yards: 1,430
- Touchdowns: 11
- Total Points: 268 (Half Point PPR)
- Finish: WR5
Players I am Taking Over Him:
- Cooper Kupp
- Justin Jefferson
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Stefon Diggs
Players I am Taking HIM Over:
- Cee Dee Lamb
- Deebo Samuel
- Tyreek Hill
- Mike Evans