It happens every year, your elite running back misses huge chunks of the season from injury and your roster is screwed. How many of us suffered through Christian McCaffrey’s Achilles tendinopathy last year? Only to be given false hope of a heroic return to see him miss the end of the season with a PCL injury. While McCaffrey was the consensus number one running back last year based on immense talent, the risk factors for injury were already there even before the Achilles and PCL. Similar risk factors exist for other players, below we will discuss 7 running backs with high injury risk in 2025.
Thanks to the Fantasy Injury Team, the days of blindly assessing player injury risk are over. In this article I’ll highlight numerous running backs who have several clear cut risk factors for injury, and let you decide whether or not they are worth the risk. Like McCaffrey, many of these players have powerful upside and may be worth rolling the dice, that’s for you to decide! Worth noting is just because a player has numerous risk factors for injury does not automatically mean they will get injured. We are assessing risk, NOT trying to predict injury. There is a distinct difference.
If you find this article helpful, I’ve got a whole lot more coming in the Fantasy Injury Team Injury Draft Guide! Coming soon.
Saquon Barkley: ADP RB2/OV4
Age: 28 Position: RB Height: 6’0 Weight: 233 Exp: 7
Injury Risk Rating
Barkley is coming off a historic 2024 season ending in a Super Bowl victory. His historic season also accumulated a massive 482 touches in 2024 alone! At 28 years old, Barkley’s age is not yet a major risk factor, but is creeping up there, and certainly is not protective against injury anymore. Barkley also has a length injury past with numerous ankle sprains, an injury that has a very high recurrence rate due to disturbance in the stability of the ankle following repeated injury, and had an ACL/MCL tear. Obviously, Barkley stayed healthy for the entire 2024 season, showing that the six-foot, 233-pound do-it-all back can be durable, but it is very difficult for a 28-year-old back with numerous injuries in his career to follow a 482-touch season with another injury-free season. Of course, his upside is as good as any, and he should be a top pick in fantasy this season, just understand there is some inherent risk.
Christian McCaffrey: ADP RB4/OV11
Age: 29 Position: WR Height: 5’11 Weight: 210 Exp: 8
Injury Risk Rating
A historically high volume running back approaching age 30 with a substantial injury history. McCaffrey’s age itself is not a major risk factor, but it is certainly not working for him and will increase his risk for injury. CMC has a long, complicated injury history. Many of the types of injuries he has experienced can influence future injuries. A high ankle sprain, for example, can often lead to lingering mobility issues that can cause more stress on the knee, hamstring, groin, etc. A significant hamstring injury, such as one that keeps a player out for 5 weeks, will often leave that hamstring weaker and more prone to future injury going forward. McCaffrey has seven individual injuries that have forced him to miss at least four games.
In addition to McCaffrey’s age and injury history, he has toted the rock an astounding 2,600 times between his college and NFL careers. That mileage takes its toll. Obviously, he is spectacular with the ball in his hand and can stuff a stat sheet like nobody else. The upside remains incredibly high, but fantasy managers need to be aware of the risk that exists with CMC.
Jonathan Taylor: ADP RB8/OV20
Age: 26 Position: RB Height: 5’10 Weight: 226 Exp: 5
Injury Risk Rating
In 2022, Taylor’s season was plagued by a high ankle sprain that he continued to re-injure, ultimately leading to offseason surgery. At the start of 2023, Taylor’s ankle still was not ready (neither was his contract), as we all remember the standoff between Taylor and the Colts front office. Fast forward to 2024, and Taylor again suffered a high ankle sprain, a textbook example of how these injuries can be a problem down the road. His injury history alone is a major risk factor, add in over 2,300 career touches, and fantasy managers need to tread cautiously with the ultra-talented back.
Josh Jacobs: ADP RB10/OV24
Age: 27 Position: RB Height: 5’10 Weight: 223 Exp: 6
Injury Risk Rating
Jacobs is 27 which is not itself a risk factor for injury. In his 27 years on earth he has accumulated over 2,300 touches between college and the NFL, that’s a lot of hits! Jacobs has dealt with multiple foot and ankle injuries which can start to become a problem. Ankle sprains, in particular, are highly predictive of future ankle sprains. A pattern begins to develop where the recurring sprains lead to loss of the passive stability of the ankle ligaments, making the ankle less stable and more prone to future injury. Jacobs also has a few injuries to major lower body muscles, a quad injury causing him to miss four games in 2023, and a hamstring injury in college are noteworthy as these injuries have high recurrence rates. No question, Jacobs is full of talent and is a major fantasy asset, and I am by no means suggesting you don’t draft him early, just understand that he possesses a few valid risk factors for injury.
Alvin Kamara: ADP RB16/OV47
Age: 30 Position: RB Height: 5’10 Weight: 215 Exp: 8
Injury Risk Rating
One of the most prolific running backs the NFL has seen over the past decade is now 30 years old and has a lengthy injury list. 30 itself is an independent risk factor for injury. Add in numerous knee ligament injuries, a few ankle sprains, and a career accumulating over 2,600 touches, and you have a player who is high risk for injury.
Kamara has spent the past three seasons largely healthy, only missing two games in that period, which tells us he appropriately rehabbed and restored proper mechanical function of the lower body after his more significant knee injuries in college and his early NFL career, but at some point, Father Time has something to say. 30-year-old backs who have taken over 2,600 hits in their career are much more prone to injury than earlier in their careers.
Joe Mixon: ADP RB18/OV55
Age: 29 Position: RB Height: 6’1 Weight: 220 Exp: 8
Injury Risk Rating
Mixon’s age is creeping up and is now borderline of being an independent risk factor. What’s more concerning is his injury resume. Four ankle injuries and one major foot injury all add risk to future injury. These injuries will impact the stability of the ankle and foot, leading to increased injury rates at the foot and ankle itself as well as up the chain into the knee, hip, back, etc. Mixon also has a pair of concussions in his past; multiple concussions reduce the threshold (amount of force) needed for subsequent concussions to occur. Mixon also has handled a massive workload (2,500 touches) in his career. The more exposure to hits increases the rate of injury. Mixon is still very productive and should be a starter for your roster; however, fantasy managers need to understand the risk factors present and add appropriate depth to their backfields.
James Conner: ADP RB20/OV57
Age: 31 Position: RB Height: 6’1 Weight: 233 Exp: 8
Injury Risk Rating
A workhorse for much of his career, the 6-foot-1 229 229-pound bruiser has an injury list the size of a 6-year-old’s Christmas list. Fortunately, Conner has never had an injury serious enough to end his season, but has collected numerous lower-body injuries that compound over time and influence risk for future injury. Numerous ankle sprains will impact the ankle’s inherent stability, leading to more ankle injuries in the future. Numerous knee sprains will do the same. Both of these injuries will impact the body’s natural ability to know where the leg is landing and striking the ground, which can lead to soft tissue injuries. Add in his age (31) and a career with over 2,300 touches, and you get a player who has numerous risk factors for injury. Conner can still be productive, but understand the risk factors present.